Track Record
The tournament is complete — all 104 matches graded against the model's pre-match probabilities, frozen as the permanent record. Group games graded three ways (home / draw / away); knockout ties on which side the model backed to advance, shootouts included. One honest footnote the numbers below don't hide: the model's title favourite was Argentina, start to finish; Spain — third on its pre-tournament board at 10.5% — won it all. Calibration, not clairvoyance, is the product.
Results called
69/104
66%
Brier score
0.528
baseline 0.615
Skill vs baseline
14%
better
Log loss
0.863
lower is better
Group stage (3-way)
44/72
61% called
Knockouts (advance)
25/32
78% called
When the model says N%, does it happen N% of the time?
| Confidence band | Predictions | Model said | Actually happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 30 | 54% | 77% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 64% | 90% |
A well-calibrated model tracks the diagonal — its “said” and “happened” columns move together. Green means the two are within 10 points on this sample; a persistent gap in one direction means the model is over- or under-confident.
Most confident, and right
Model gave 69.8% to Argentina to advance — ARG 3-2 CPV. Called it.
Most confident, and wrong
Model gave a draw just 25.3% — it happened (ESP 0-0 CPV).
Closing-line value · 28 graded fixtures
Model Brier
0.518
Market Brier
0.403
Beat the market
8/28
29%
The closing line is sharper than the model so far — which is the usual outcome; the market is hard to beat. A positive model edge most often means the model is wrong.
Which side the model backed to advance vs who went through · bold = model's pick
| Tie | Home adv. | Away adv. | Result | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESPvARG | 49% | 51% | 1-0 | ✗ |
| FRAvENG | 54% | 46% | 4-6 | ✗ |
| ENGvARG | 47% | 53% | 1-2 | ✓ |
| FRAvESP | 52% | 48% | 0-2 | ✗ |
| ARGvSUI | 62% | 38% | 3-1 | ✓ |
| NORvENG | 41% | 59% | 1-2 | ✓ |
| ESPvBEL | 56% | 44% | 2-1 | ✓ |
| FRAvMAR | 59% | 41% | 2-0 | ✓ |
| SUIvCOL | 46% | 54% | 0-0 (4-3 p) | ✗ |
| ARGvEGY | 66% | 34% | 3-2 | ✓ |
| USAvBEL | 44% | 56% | 1-4 | ✓ |
| PORvESP | 47% | 53% | 0-1 | ✓ |
| MEXvENG | 48% | 52% | 2-3 | ✓ |
| BRAvNOR | 59% | 41% | 1-2 | ✗ |
| PARvFRA | 33% | 67% | 0-1 | ✓ |
| CANvMAR | 49% | 51% | 0-3 | ✓ |
| COLvGHA | 61% | 39% | 1-0 | ✓ |
| ARGvCPV | 70% | 30% | 3-2 | ✓ |
| AUSvEGY | 49% | 51% | 1-1 (2-4 p) | ✓ |
| SUIvALG | 51% | 49% | 2-0 | ✓ |
| PORvCRO | 55% | 45% | 2-1 | ✓ |
| ESPvAUT | 61% | 39% | 3-0 | ✓ |
| USAvBIH | 54% | 46% | 2-0 | ✓ |
| BELvSEN | 53% | 47% | 3-2 | ✓ |
| ENGvCGO | 65% | 35% | 2-1 | ✓ |
| MEXvECU | 60% | 40% | 2-0 | ✓ |
| FRAvSWE | 64% | 36% | 3-0 | ✓ |
| CIVvNOR | 43% | 56% | 1-2 | ✓ |
| NEDvMAR | 53% | 47% | 1-1 (2-3 p) | ✗ |
| GERvPAR | 62% | 38% | 1-1 (3-4 p) | ✗ |
| BRAvJPN | 59% | 41% | 2-1 | ✓ |
| RSAvCAN | 39% | 61% | 0-1 | ✓ |
Model H/D/A probabilities vs what happened · bold = model's pick
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JORvARG | 21% | 25% | 54% | 1-3 | ✓ |
| ALGvAUT | 36% | 27% | 37% | 3-3 | ✗ |
| CGOvUZB | 38% | 27% | 35% | 3-1 | ✓ |
| COLvPOR | 33% | 27% | 40% | 0-0 | ✗ |
| PANvENG | 24% | 25% | 51% | 0-2 | ✓ |
| CROvGHA | 45% | 27% | 28% | 2-1 | ✓ |
| NZLvBEL | 23% | 25% | 52% | 1-5 | ✓ |
| EGYvIRN | 35% | 28% | 37% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| CPVvKSA | 37% | 28% | 36% | 0-0 | ✗ |
| URUvESP | 32% | 27% | 41% | 0-1 | ✓ |
| NORvFRA | 28% | 26% | 46% | 1-4 | ✓ |
| SENvIRQ | 44% | 27% | 30% | 5-0 | ✓ |
| PARvAUS | 36% | 28% | 36% | 0-0 | ✗ |
| TURvUSA | 37% | 27% | 36% | 3-2 | ✓ |
| TUNvNED | 27% | 27% | 47% | 1-3 | ✓ |
| JPNvSWE | 38% | 27% | 35% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| CURvCIV | 31% | 27% | 42% | 0-2 | ✓ |
| ECUvGER | 29% | 27% | 44% | 2-1 | ✗ |
| RSAvKOR | 33% | 27% | 40% | 1-0 | ✗ |
| CZEvMEX | 30% | 26% | 44% | 0-3 | ✓ |
| SCOvBRA | 26% | 26% | 48% | 0-3 | ✓ |
| MARvHAI | 47% | 26% | 27% | 4-2 | ✓ |
| BIHvQAT | 42% | 27% | 31% | 3-1 | ✓ |
| SUIvCAN | 34% | 27% | 39% | 2-1 | ✗ |
| COLvCGO | 44% | 27% | 30% | 1-0 | ✓ |
| PANvCRO | 27% | 27% | 46% | 0-1 | ✓ |
| ENGvGHA | 50% | 25% | 25% | 0-0 | ✗ |
| PORvUZB | 49% | 26% | 25% | 5-0 | ✓ |
| JORvALG | 29% | 27% | 44% | 1-2 | ✓ |
| NORvSEN | 36% | 27% | 37% | 3-2 | ✗ |
| FRAvIRQ | 52% | 25% | 23% | 3-0 | ✓ |
| ARGvAUT | 45% | 27% | 28% | 2-0 | ✓ |
| NZLvEGY | 28% | 27% | 45% | 1-3 | ✓ |
| URUvCPV | 46% | 27% | 27% | 2-2 | ✗ |
| BELvIRN | 42% | 27% | 31% | 0-0 | ✗ |
| ESPvKSA | 52% | 25% | 23% | 4-0 | ✓ |
| TUNvJPN | 31% | 27% | 42% | 0-4 | ✓ |
| ECUvCUR | 44% | 27% | 29% | 0-0 | ✗ |
| GERvCIV | 47% | 26% | 27% | 2-1 | ✓ |
| NEDvSWE | 42% | 27% | 31% | 5-1 | ✓ |
| TURvPAR | 39% | 27% | 33% | 0-1 | ✗ |
| BRAvHAI | 53% | 25% | 23% | 3-0 | ✓ |
| SCOvMAR | 30% | 28% | 42% | 0-1 | ✓ |
| USAvAUS | 39% | 27% | 33% | 2-0 | ✓ |
| MEXvKOR | 45% | 26% | 29% | 1-0 | ✓ |
| CANvQAT | 49% | 25% | 26% | 6-0 | ✓ |
| SUIvBIH | 40% | 27% | 33% | 4-1 | ✓ |
| CZEvRSA | 40% | 27% | 33% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| UZBvCOL | 28% | 27% | 45% | 1-3 | ✓ |
| GHAvPAN | 38% | 27% | 35% | 1-0 | ✓ |
| ENGvCRO | 41% | 27% | 32% | 4-2 | ✓ |
| PORvCGO | 47% | 26% | 27% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| AUTvJOR | 45% | 27% | 28% | 3-1 | ✓ |
| ARGvALG | 47% | 26% | 27% | 3-0 | ✓ |
| IRQvNOR | 30% | 26% | 43% | 1-4 | ✓ |
| FRAvSEN | 45% | 27% | 28% | 3-1 | ✓ |
| IRNvNZL | 46% | 27% | 27% | 2-2 | ✗ |
| KSAvURU | 27% | 27% | 47% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| BELvEGY | 43% | 27% | 30% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| ESPvCPV | 51% | 25% | 23% | 0-0 | ✗ |
| SWEvTUN | 41% | 28% | 32% | 5-1 | ✓ |
| CIVvECU | 34% | 28% | 38% | 1-0 | ✗ |
| NEDvJPN | 41% | 27% | 32% | 2-2 | ✗ |
| GERvCUR | 52% | 25% | 23% | 7-1 | ✓ |
| AUSvTUR | 33% | 27% | 40% | 2-0 | ✗ |
| HAIvSCO | 32% | 27% | 41% | 0-1 | ✓ |
| BRAvMAR | 41% | 27% | 32% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| QATvSUI | 28% | 27% | 46% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| USAvPAR | 39% | 28% | 34% | 4-1 | ✓ |
| CANvBIH | 43% | 26% | 31% | 1-1 | ✗ |
| KORvCZE | 36% | 27% | 37% | 2-1 | ✗ |
| MEXvRSA | 48% | 26% | 26% | 2-0 | ✓ |